From October 1, 1999 to September 30, 2009, a period of ten years, the S&P 500 had an annualized return of –0.2% (this includes dividends reinvested). Emerging markets had an annualized return of 11.7%. Fast forward a decade to the next set of ten year returns from October 1, 2009 to September 30, 2019. During these last ten years, the annualized return of the S&P 500 was 13.2%, while the ten year annualized return of emerging markets was just 3.7%.
Summertime is one of the big times of the year for blockbuster movies. This seems somewhat ironic, since summer is also a great time to get outdoors. Nevertheless, if we were to give the last quarter a movie title, the one that comes to mind is “Twister.”
Event recording from January 28, 2019.
We believe the stock market’s 10% decline from the September 20th high is due to a confluence of three major fears for investors. First is the fear of rising interest rates and the Federal Reserve Bank’s monetary policy. Second is the fear of slower corporate earnings growth. Third is the fear of trade wars, especially with China. We believe that recent stock market weakness reflects temporary risks and is NOT a precursor to deeper economic problems.
The year is half over and despite the stock market’s ups and downs, the total performance for the year is neither too good nor too bad. As of June 30th, U.S. markets were up, with the S&P 500 up 2.65% year to date. International stocks gave up some of last year’s gains, dropping roughly 5% year to date. And emerging markets, which had a stellar 2017 (being up 37%), gave back about 8% this year, primarily due to an appreciating dollar.